Week 9 of the college football season proved much more exciting than last week with a few high impact upsets that should make for an interesting Playoff ranking show tomorrow. Forward Progress is holding steady at 67% accuracy this week but didn’t manage to call all the upsets.

  • (2) Penn State - 38 at (6) Ohio State - 39
    • This game had the biggest implications for the playoffs and the Buckeyes didn’t fail to make the conversation much more interesting. Penn State is no longer undefeated and Ohio State is part of the postseason discussion again. The computer predicted an Ohio State victory by less than a tenth of a point, but a victory nonetheless. Quite the tossup, but I’ll take the win over the AP poll!
  • (4) TCU - 7 at (25) Iowa State - 14
    • The Cyclones keep shocking the league by knocking off number 4 after taking down then-number 3 Oklahoma earlier this season. Forward Progress was not ahead of the curve in this case, forecasting a 3 point win for the Horned Frogs.
  • (15) Washington State - 37 at (NR) Arizona - 58
    • Wazzu continues their skid in week 9, losing to unranked Arizona in pretty spectacular fashion. Another misprediction from the computer here with WSU expected to win by 5.
  • (16) Michigan State - 31 at (NR) Northwestern - 39
    • Chalk up another miss for the computer, this time a 6 point victory was expected for the Spartans.
  • (NR) Florida State - 3 at (NR) Boston College - 35
    • Florida State continues to drift aimlessly from game to game, barely putting up a fight against Boston College. Forward Progress hasn’t caught on yet since data from 10 games ago is still propping them up, keeping them ranked at 18. Yeesh.

Speaking of rankings, lets see how this weekend shook out!


  Team Predicted Wins Ranking Date Rank Movement
1 Alabama 247 2017-10-29 0
2 Clemson 245 2017-10-29 0
3 Virginia Tech 242 2017-10-29 3
4 Notre Dame 240 2017-10-29 3
5 Georgia 239 2017-10-29 3
6 Ohio State 239 2017-10-29 -2
7 Oklahoma 234 2017-10-29 -2
8 Penn State 234 2017-10-29 -5
9 Oklahoma State 229 2017-10-29 1
10 Washington 229 2017-10-29 1
11 Auburn 227 2017-10-29 1
12 Miami (FL) 224 2017-10-29 -3
13 Texas Christian 224 2017-10-29 2
14 USC 223 2017-10-29 0
15 Georgia Tech 217 2017-10-29 3
16 Michigan 216 2017-10-29 1
17 Wisconsin 216 2017-10-29 -1
18 Florida State 212 2017-10-29 -5
19 Iowa State 208 2017-10-29 4
20 LSU 207 2017-10-29 1
21 North Carolina State 207 2017-10-29 -1
22 Michigan State 205 2017-10-29 -3
23 Mississippi State 204 2017-10-29 1
24 West Virginia 202 2017-10-29 -2
25 Texas 199 2017-10-29 4

Alabama and Clemson are still at the top, riding the success of their National Championship performances, aside from a bump or two in Clemson’s case. In both cases they will need to drop a game in spectacular fashion to get much movement in their ranks. Virginia Tech streaks to number three after walloping Duke. I don’t particularly care for seeing that much movement based on a blowout of a weak team but I’m guessing that VT is also getting poor performances off their books as the 10 game lookback moves forward. Notre Dame shot up as well since they beat NC State (no slouch!) in convincing fashion. Surprisingly, Ohio State fell two spots after beating Penn State. As mentioned earlier, Florida State continues their drop to number 18 and may fall off entirely next week as their previous performances fall out of the data model.

Things are getting pretty interesting and I’ll be excited to see how the Playoff Committee ranks teams for comparison next week. Until then, Happy Halloween!