This week I would like to introduce the first round of NCAA College Football rankings using a new computer algorithm I’m calling Forward Progress. For information about the history and background of CFB ranking systems check out this article, otherwise on to the rankings!
As mentioned earlier Forward Progress is a CFB computer poll that uses no human ratings or input to predict the results of hypothetical team matchups. By using game data instead of subjective “eye tests” the rankings are theoretically unbiased but are subject to variance caused by unlikely outcomes or flukey games. I have a (slightly) technical rundown of the algorithm here, take a look if you’re at all interested in data analysis or statistics.
Without further ado, here are the Forward Progress rankings for the week of 2017-10-01. The Predicted Wins column shows the total wins predicted against every other FBS team both home and away. 258 Wins would be a perfect score against the field.
|Team||Predicted Wins||Ranking Date|
At the top end there aren’t too many surprises, but because the model gauges performance over a 10 game history it isn’t very responsive to recent wins or losses. All in all, I’m generally happy with the rankings right now and will continue updating them on a weekly basis.